EVERSOURCE ENERGY (ES) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

ES delivered a clean beat on adjusted results: Q3 2025 recurring EPS of $1.19 vs S&P Global consensus $1.15* and GAAP EPS of $0.99; revenue of $3.22B vs $3.20B estimate*, with a small EBITDA miss vs consensus as offshore wind-related items and higher depreciation/interest weighed on EBITDA .*
Management narrowed FY25 recurring EPS guidance to $4.72–$4.80 (higher midpoint) and reaffirmed 5–7% long-term EPS CAGR off a 2024 base of $4.57 .
Regulatory momentum inflected positively: CT PURA now fully seated; Yankee Gas alternative resolution adopted with a better-than-draft outcome; MA NSTAR Gas PBR approved (with separate steps underway on rate base roll-in) .
Balance sheet and cash flow strengthened: FFO/debt was 12.7% at Q2 and expected >13% at Q3; $600M parent debt opportunistically issued; ~$465M equity via ATM YTD; Aquarion sale expected to close year-end with ~$1.6B net cash inflow .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Transmission and electric distribution continued to comp higher on investment and rate resets, adding +$0.01 and +$0.03 to EPS respectively in Q3; natural gas distribution improved +$0.04 on MA rate increases and capital trackers .
Regulatory trajectory improving in Connecticut with four new PURA commissioners; management sees opportunity for more balanced outcomes and collaboration to advance grid investments .
Load and growth pipeline: YTD weather-normalized load +2%, summer peak >12 GW (highest since 2013), underpinning a robust multi-year T&D capex runway; AMI rollout (>40k meters installed in MA) advancing .

What Went Wrong

Offshore wind liability increased ~$285M, offset by ~$210M tax benefits, resulting in a non-recurring after-tax charge of ~$75M (–$0.20/sh) in Q3 .
EBITDA fell short of consensus as higher depreciation, property taxes, interest, and O&M partially offset distribution/transmission revenue tailwinds (Q3 commentary and segment drivers) .*
Water segment earnings declined YoY on higher O&M and depreciation; parent/other elevated interest expense remains a headwind given the loss of capitalized interest post-offshore wind sales .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.06	$2.84	$3.22	$3.2008*
GAAP EPS ($)	$(0.33)	$0.96	$0.99	n/a
Recurring EPS (non-GAAP) ($)	$1.13	n/a	$1.19	$1.1485*
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	n/a	n/a	$1.0485*	$1.1417*
Operating Margin (%)	20.0% (612.4/3,063.2)	23.4% (663.0/2,838.1)	21.4% (688.7/3,220.6)	n/a

Notes: Recurring EPS excludes offshore wind losses per company methodology . Consensus from S&P Global; asterisk marks S&P Global values.*

Segment Earnings (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment (Net Income, $MM; EPS/sh)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	Δ
Electric Transmission	$174.9; $0.49	$185.5; $0.50	+$10.6; +$0.01
Electric Distribution	$203.5; $0.57	$221.6; $0.60	+$18.1; +$0.03
Natural Gas Distribution	$(30.2); $(0.09)	$(16.8); $(0.05)	+$13.4; +$0.04
Water Distribution	$23.7; $0.07	$18.9; $0.05	$(4.8); $(0.02)
Parent & Other (ex-OW)	$34.0; $0.09	$33.3; $0.09	$(0.7); $—
Offshore Wind (loss)	$(524.0); $(1.46)	$(75.0); $(0.20)	+$449.0; +$1.26

KPIs and Balance Sheet Progress

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025 / Current
Operating Revenues ($B)	$4.118	$2.838	$3.221
FFO/Debt (Moody’s)	n/a	12.7%	>13% expected
Equity Issued (ATM, YTD)	n/a	n/a	~$465MM
Parent LT Debt Issuance	n/a	n/a	$600MM
Load Growth (YTD, weather-normalized)	n/a	n/a	~2%
AMI meters deployed (MA)	n/a	n/a	>40,000
5-year Capex Plan	n/a	n/a	$24.2B through 2029 reaffirmed

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Recurring EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2025	$4.67–$4.82	$4.72–$4.80	Narrowed; midpoint raised
Long-term EPS Growth	Through 2029 (from 2024 base $4.57)	5–7%	5–7% reaffirmed	Maintained
5-year Capital Plan	2025–2029	$24.2B (prior disclosure)	$24.2B reaffirmed; update expected with Q4 call	Maintained
Tax Rate (normalized)	2025–2026	n/a	Low 20% for 2025; moving to more “normal” in 2026	New color
FFO/Debt	2025 YE	n/a	~100 bps above rating agency thresholds by YE25	New color
Aquarion Sale Proceeds	2025	n/a	~$1.6B net cash at close; final CT PURA decision targeted Nov 19; closing by YE25	New timing clarity
CT Storm Cost Recovery	2027 (prev. not assumed for CF)	Not assumed in prior CF forecast	Securitization likely 2027; aiming to accelerate decision timing	Timing focus

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
CT regulatory outlook	Focus on constructive outcomes; guidance reaffirmed ; stable tone in Q1	New PURA commissioners; Yankee Gas alternative resolution adopted; tone constructive	Improving
Offshore wind (Revolution/South Fork)	Offshore wind sale completed; loss impact in 2024 backdrop	+$285M liability increase offset by ~$210M tax; net –$75M; Revolution substantially complete; 52/65 turbines installed; COD ends ES obligations	De-risking toward COD; residual cost risk persists
Capex pipeline	Execution on plan; T&D investments continue	$24.2B plan reaffirmed; potential $1.5–$2B adds; ISO-NE RFPs; major substations (e.g., Cambridge)	Expanding optionality
Load/affordability	Emphasis on affordability and innovation (AMI, EE)	YTD load +2%; >12 GW peak; seasonal heat pump rate; winter gas bill discount; $1.4B EE savings	Demand rising; affordability mitigation ongoing
Balance sheet & liquidity	Building cash flow; guidance intact	FFO/Debt >13% expected; $600M parent debt; ~$465M ATM YTD; Aquarion cash near YE	Strengthening

Management Commentary

“We’re seeing a constructive shift in Connecticut’s regulatory landscape… there is now a genuine opportunity to collaborate… and to achieve more balanced regulatory outcomes.” — Joe Nolan, CEO .
“Year to date, we have seen weather-normalized load growth of 2%… peak of over 12 gigawatts, the highest record since 2013.” — Joe Nolan .
“We expect our FFO to debt ratio for 2025 to be approximately 100 basis points above the rating agency thresholds by year-end… over 13% as of the third quarter.” — John Moreira, CFO .
“We are narrowing our 2025 recurring EPS per share guidance to $4.72–$4.80 and reaffirming our longer-term EPS growth rate of 5%–7% off of the 2024 non-GAAP EPS base.” — John Moreira .

Q&A Highlights

CT Yankee Gas case: Alternative resolution “a little bit better than the draft decision”; details to follow; management framed embedded plan as conservative .
MA NSTAR Gas PBR/rate base: PBR adjustment approved; rate base roll-in denied prompting motion for reconsideration and rate case intent; new commissioners could influence future outcomes .
Equity needs: ~$465M ATM YTD; near-term needs covered; clarification that majority of equity needs remain toward tail end of forecast period, not “next year” .
Revolution Wind timing: Ørsted reported 52/65 turbines installed; ES brought dates in by 4–5 months; first power timing to be addressed by Ørsted; ES off the hook at COD .
Storm cost securitization: Targeting decision earlier than current 2Q–3Q window; strong documentation track record in MA/NH gives confidence .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 recurring EPS: $1.19 vs $1.15 consensus* — modest beat; GAAP EPS $0.99 reflects –$0.20 offshore charge .*
Revenue: $3.221B vs $3.201B consensus* — slight top-line beat .*
EBITDA: $1.0485B actual* vs $1.1417B consensus* — miss, reflecting higher depreciation, property taxes, interest, and O&M partially offsetting revenue gains .*
Consensus trajectory: Q4 2025 EPS ~$1.14*, Q1 2026 ~$1.60*, with revenue seasonality (Q1’26 ~$3.99B*) consistent with historical demand [GetEstimates].*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Quality quarter: Clean revenue and adjusted EPS beats with improving CT regulatory tone; guidance tightened with higher midpoint — supportive for estimate stability/raises near term .*
Watch the EBITDA mix: Depreciation, taxes, interest and O&M remain offsets; EBITDA missed consensus — keep focus on capex timing, rate recovery, and O&M discipline .*
Regulatory catalysts: CT Yankee resolution, Aquarion approval (Nov 19 target) and close by YE, and storm securitization scheduling in 2026–2027 are stock-moving milestones .
Balance sheet momentum: FFO/debt >13% and liquidity actions (ATM, $600M parent debt) reduce downside skew; Aquarion proceeds (~$1.6B) should further de-risk .
Long runway: Load growth, ISO-NE opportunities, and substations expansion underpin multi-year T&D investment; $24.2B plan reaffirmed with potential upside .
Offshore wind tail risk diminishing: Liability update recognized; pathway to COD reduces residual exposure; tax shield offsets limit P&L drag .
Near-term trading setup: Positive regulatory and guidance signals vs EBITDA mix headwinds suggests constructive bias; monitor PURA/Aquarion decisions and any Q4 capex/estimate updates on the next call .

Citations:

Q3 results and segment details:
Q2 results:
Q1 results:
Offshore wind liability update:
Earnings call transcript qualitative and guidance color:
Second transcript variant confirms themes:

S&P Global consensus and “actuals” used for estimates: EPS, revenue, EBITDA, target price and recommendation where available.*